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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: March 16th

And Here. We. Go!

Between now and Selection Sunday, each day I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2024 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

*The team who won its league’s regular season will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier” until a team has clinched an “automatic qualifier” to the NCAA Tournament. Teams that have already earned automatic qualifiers will be listed in BOLD.

The Current Field

Atlantic Sun (1)
Stetson (AQ)

America East (1)
Vermont (regular season champion)

American Athletic Conference (2)
South Florida (regular season champion), Florida Atlantic

Atlantic 10 (2)
VCU (highest remaining seed in league tournament), Dayton

ACC (3)
North Carolina (regular season champion), Duke, Clemson

Big 12 (9)
Houston (regular season champion), Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor, BYU, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas

Big East (5)
UConn (regular season champion), Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall, St. John’s

Big Sky (1)
Montana State (AQ)

Big South (1)
Longwood (AQ)

Big Ten (6)
Purdue (regular season champion), Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State

Big West (1)
UC Davis (highest remaining seed in league tournament)

CAA (1)
Charleston (AQ)

Conference-USA (1)
Western Kentucky (highest remaining seed in league tournament)

Horizon League (1)
Oakland (AQ)

Ivy League (1)
Princeton (regular season champion)

MAAC (1)
Fairfield (highest remaining seed in league tournament)

MAC (1)
Akron (highest remaining seed in league tournament)

MEAC (1)
Howard (highest remaining seed in league tournament)

Missouri Valley (1)
Drake (AQ)

Mountain West (6)
San Diego State (highest remaining seed in league tournament), Utah State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Boise State, Nevada

NEC (1)
Wagner (AQ)

OVC (1)
Morehead State (AQ)

Pac-12 (3)
Colorado (highest remaining seed in league tournament), Arizona, Washington State

Patriot League (1)
Colgate (AQ)

SEC (8)
Auburn (highest remaining seed in league tournament), Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, Texas A&M

Southern (1)
Samford (AQ)

Southland (1)
McNeese (AQ)

SWAC (1)
Grambling (regular season champion)

Summit (1)
South Dakota State (AQ)

Sun Belt (1)
James Madison (AQ)

WCC (2)
Saint Mary’s (AQ), Gonzaga

WAC (1)
Grand Canyon (regular season champion)

First Four Out

Pitt, Virginia, Providence, Indiana State

Top 16 Seeds

1: Purdue, UConn, Houston, North Carolina
2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State
3: Baylor, Creighton, Kentucky, Illinois
4: Duke, Kansas, Auburn, Alabama

Five Things To Know

  • Losses on Friday by both Arizona and Tennessee means that North Carolina will be the fourth number one seed on Selection Sunday. It will be the first time that the Tar Heels have been a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2019.
  • Over the next two days, bubble teams will be rooting hard for both NC State and Oregon — two viable bid stealers — to lose to North Carolina and Colorado respectively in the finals of the ACC and Pac-12 Tournaments. They’ll also be rooting for Florida Atlantic to win the AAC Tournament. If those things happen, three more at-large spots will be available.
  • Only three ACC teams — North Carolina, Duke, and Clemson — are cemented in the projected bracket above. That’s just 20 percent of the league.
  • Barring something unforeseen, the Mountain West will likely have six teams in the NCAA Tournament. That’s as many teams as the Big Ten and more teams than the ACC, Big East, and Pac-12.
  • 16 different teams who won their conference regular season title have now been eliminated from their conference tournament.

Leftovers