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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: March 15th

This is March.

Between now and Selection Sunday, every day I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

The team who’s currently in first place in their respective league will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier”.

Teams that have already clinched an automatic berth will be listed in BOLD.

The Current Field

America East (1)
UMBC (AQ)
American Conference (1)
South Florida (AQ)
ASUN (1)
Queens (AQ)
Atlantic 10 (2)
VCU (AQ), Saint Louis
ACC (8)
Duke (AQ), Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Virginia, Miami, NC State
Big 12 (8)
Arizona (AQ), BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, UCF, TCU
Big East (3)
St. John’s (AQ), UConn, Villanova
Big Sky (1)
Idaho (AQ)
Big South (1)
High Point (AQ)
Big Ten (9)
Michigan (AQ), Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State
Big West (1)
Hawaii (AQ)
CAA (1)
Hofstra (AQ)
Conference-USA (1)
Kennesaw State (AQ)
Horizon League (1)
Wright State (AQ)
Ivy League (1)
Yale (AQ)
MAAC (1)
Siena (AQ)
MAC (2)
Akron (AQ), Miami (OH)
MEAC (1)
Howard (AQ)
Missouri Valley (1)
Northern Iowa (AQ)
Mountain West (1)
Utah State (AQ)
NEC (1)
LIU (AQ)
OVC (1)
Tennessee State (AQ)
Patriot League (1)
Lehigh (AQ)
SEC (10)
Arkansas (AQ), Vanderbilt, Florida, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri
Southern (1)
Furman (AQ)
Southland (1)
McNeese (AQ)
SWAC (1)
Prairie View A&M (AQ)
Summit (1)
North Dakota State (AQ)
Sun Belt (1)
Troy (AQ)
WCC (3)
Gonzaga (AQ), Santa Clara, Saint Mary’s
WAC (1)
Cal Baptist (AQ)

First Four Out

Oklahoma, San Diego State, Auburn, New Mexico

Top 16 Seeds

1: Duke (No. 1 overall seed), Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Houston, UConn, Iowa State, Michigan State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Gonzaga
4: Alabama, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Kansas

Five Things To Know

  • Duke —- who will be the top overall seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament — has now won the ACC Tournament in back-to-back seasons with a shorthanded roster. The Blue Devils didn’t have Cooper Flagg a year ago and didn’t have both Caleb Foster (foot) and Patrick Ngongba (foot) this past week in Charlotte.
  • Purdue will move to a two seed in the bracket projection above if it beats Michigan today in the Big Ten Tournament title game.
  • Texas Tech announced on Saturday night that Christian Anderson (groin) will be available for the NCAA Tournament. The 6-2 Anderson averages 18.9 points and suffered the injury earlier this week in the Big 12 Tournament.
  • Barring something unforeseen, the Mountain West will only have one team in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.
  • A loss today against Dayton in the finals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament will cost VCU an at-large bid. Tip off is at 1 PM ET on CBS.

Leftovers