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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: March 14th

This is March.

Between now and Selection Sunday, every day I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

The team who’s currently in first place in their respective league will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier”.

Teams that have already clinched an automatic berth will be listed in BOLD.

The Current Field

America East (1)
UMBC (AQ)
American Conference (1)
South Florida (AQ)
ASUN (1)
Queens (AQ)
Atlantic 10 (2)
Saint Louis (AQ), VCU
ACC (8)
Duke (AQ), Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Virginia, Miami, NC State
Big 12 (8)
Arizona (AQ), BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, UCF, TCU
Big East (3)
St. John’s (AQ), UConn, Villanova
Big Sky (1)
Idaho (AQ)
Big South (1)
High Point (AQ)
Big Ten (9)
Michigan (AQ), Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State
Big West (1)
UC Irvine (AQ)
CAA (1)
Hofstra (AQ)
Conference-USA (1)
Sam Houston (AQ)
Horizon League (1)
Wright State (AQ)
Ivy League (1)
Yale (AQ)
MAAC (1)
Siena (AQ)
MAC (2)
Akron (AQ), Miami (OH)
MEAC (1)
Howard (AQ)
Missouri Valley (1)
Northern Iowa (AQ)
Mountain West (1)
Utah State (1)
NEC (1)
LIU (AQ)
OVC (1)
Tennessee State (AQ)
Patriot League (1)
Lehigh (AQ)
SEC (10)
Florida (AQ), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri
Southern (1)
Furman (AQ)
Southland (1)
McNeese (AQ)
SWAC (1)
Alabama A&M (AQ)
Summit (1)
North Dakota State (AQ)
Sun Belt (1)
Troy (AQ)
WCC (3)
Gonzaga (AQ), Santa Clara, Saint Mary’s
WAC (1)
Utah Valley (AQ)

First Four Out

San Diego State, Oklahoma, Auburn, New Mexico

Top 16 Seeds

1: Duke (No. 1 overall seed), Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: UConn, Houston, Michigan State, Iowa State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Gonzaga
4: Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Vanderbilt

Five Things To Know

  • Given the opponent — Michigan State — and given the fact that UCLA’s best offensive player — Tyler Bilodeau — missed the final 25 minutes of the game with a knee injury, the Bruins’ 88-84 win over the Spartans on Friday night as good of a win as I’ve seen so far this season. This is the type of victory that will move this team up a seed line on Selection Sunday. Mick Cronin’s team will face Purdue today in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals.
  • Houston’s back-to-back wins over BYU and Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City should put the Cougars in position to be the two seed in the South Region on Selection Sunday. That means Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games at the Toyota Center in Downtown Houston if the Cougars are fortunate enough to get to the second weekend of March Madness.
  • No bid stealer from a power conference has ever made the NCAA Tournament with a sub .500 record. Ole Miss is currently 15-19 entering the semifinals of the SEC Tournament today against Arkansas.
  • Illinois dropped to a three seed in the bracket projection above following Friday’s loss against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.
  • Nebraska will have to win an NCAA Tournament game for the first time ever in order to break its program record for wins. The Huskers are currently 26-6 and are tied for the most victories ever in a season by a team in Lincoln.

Leftovers