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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: January 2nd

This is ONLY January.

Between now and Selection Sunday, each Friday during the regular season I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

The team who’s currently in first place in their respective league will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier”.

The Current Field

Atlantic Sun (1)
Austin Peay (AQ)
America East (1)
UMBC (AQ)
American Athletic Conference (1)
Tulsa (AQ)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Saint Louis (AQ)
ACC (8)
Duke (AQ), Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Virginia, Miami, NC State
Big 12 (10)
Arizona (AQ), BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF
Big East (4)
UConn (AQ), St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall
Big Sky (1)
Northern Colorado (AQ)
Big South (1)
High Point (AQ)
Big Ten (9)
Michigan (AQ), Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, USC, UCLA
Big West (1)
UC Santa Barbara (AQ)
CAA (1)
UNCW (AQ)
Conference-USA (1)
Liberty (AQ)
Horizon League (1)
Milwaukee (AQ)
Ivy League (1)
Yale (AQ)
MAAC (1)
Quinnipiac (AQ)
MAC (1)
Miami (OH) (AQ)
MEAC (1)
Howard (AQ)
Missouri Valley (1)
Illinois State (AQ)
Mountain West (1)
Utah State (AQ)
NEC (1)
Central Connecticut (AQ)
OVC (1)
Morehead State (AQ)
Patriot League (1)
Colgate (AQ)
SEC (10)
Vanderbilt (AQ), Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma
Southern (1)
Furman (AQ)
Southland (1)
Stephen F. Austin (AQ)
SWAC (1)
Alabama A&M (AQ)
Summit (1)
North Dakota State (AQ)
Sun Belt (1)
Arkansas State (AQ)
WCC (2)
Gonzaga (AQ), Saint Mary’s
WAC (1)
Utah Valley (AQ)

First Four Out

Virginia Tech, Butler, Indiana, Arizona State

Top 16 Seeds

1: Michigan (No. 1 overall seed), Arizona, UConn, Iowa State
2: Purdue, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan State
3: BYU, Alabama, Houston, Vanderbilt
4: North Carolina, Nebraska, Illinois, Kansas

Five Things To Know

  • There are currently seven teams in college basketball — Michigan, Arizona, UConn, Iowa State, Duke, Vanderbilt, and Michigan State — who own four Quad 1 victories.
  • Michigan State hasn’t been a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2012.
  • NC State will host Virginia (Saturday), Duke, and North Carolina during the regular season. That’s three likely Quad 1 opportunities at home for the Wolfpack, who will likely need to win 12 regular season ACC games to comfortably make the NCAA Tournament.
  • Virginia Tech went up 14 spots in the NET — from 67 to 53 — following Wednesday’s triple-overtime win over Virginia. Every game matters.
  • Saint Louis is 13-1 and as of today, its only Quad 1 opportunity of the regular season will be next week’s game at VCU. This is life in the Atlantic 10 in 2026.

Leftovers