It’s conference preview time!
Over the next few months, we’ll break down one league every week, featuring key questions, preseason power rankings, preseason awards, and more.
This week’s focus is on the Big Ten.
Check below for a comprehensive breakdown of the conference:
Five Questions entering the Big Ten
1. How many Big Ten teams will reach the 2021 NCAA Tournament?
That’s a tough question. The Big Ten was set to put 10 teams into the field of 68 last March prior to the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament due to COVID-19. The league looks deeper this season. The three teams who finished at the bottom of the league — Minnesota, Northwestern, and Nebraska — all have an opportunity to be better, with the Cornhuskers set to unveil a bevy of transfers in Year Two under Fred Hoiberg. While the Big Ten is better on paper 1-14 than it was a year ago, this may not necessarily mean that it will have more teams selected for next year’s NCAA Tournament. Better teams at the bottom of the conference mean that the league is capable of cannibalizing itself, much like what we saw when the ACC was loaded during the 16-17 campaign. The 13th place team in the ACC that year — NC State — won a game at Duke while the 14th place team — Pitt — beat both Virginia and Florida State, who were five and three seeds respectively in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten is going to be a better league than it was last season, when it had 10 teams set to hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Whether or not that means that 10 or more programs from the conference can reach the field of 68 next March remains to be seen.
2. Is the Illinois hype warranted?
Without question. The Illini were on their way to being an off-the-radar pick to reach the Sweet 16 prior to the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament. The decisions of both Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn to return to school next season reiterates Illinois’ overall ceiling, but it’s important to remember that this team is about more than just their two potential All-Americans. Trent Frazier is back and arguably the top on-ball defender in the Big Ten while another senior — Da’Monte Williams — has a chance to emerge into one of the top Glue Guys in the sport. Brad Underwood also brings in two top-50 freshmen in Andre Curbelo and Adam Miller. A pair of transfers — Austin Hutcherson (Wesleyan) and Jacob Grandison (Holy Cross) — also figure to be rotation caliber pieces. Everyone knew that Luka Garza’s decision to return to Iowa would make the Hawkeyes a favorite in the Big Ten and a Final Four contender, but Dosunmu’s decision to return for his junior season caught many by surprise. The 6-5 guard averaged 16.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists as a sophomore and is in position to be a first-team All-American and National Player of the Year candidate. With he, Cockburn, and Frazier, Underwood has three players back who averaged 9.1 points or more on a team that won 21 games. This rendition of Illini should be the best that Champaign has seen since Illinois lost to North Carolina in the 2005 national title game.
3. Can Mike Smith cement himself as Michigan’s starting point guard?
It’s the million dollar question right now in Ann Arbor. Part of the reason why Juwan Howard was able to seamlessly transition to the college game last year in his first season as Michigan’s head coach was because he had a senior point guard like Zavier Simpson to run his team. Big Ten coaches have raved about Simpson’s overall IQ and leadership skills for years and it’s hard to argue with the results; the Wolverines were a combined 82-27 over the past three seasons with Simpson as Michigan’s primary floor general. How will Howard replace him? David DeJulius was the likely choice until he opted to transfer to Cincinnati, leaving Mike Smith — a graduate transfer from Columbia — as a primary candidate with 6-1 senior Eli Brooks also an option. The 5-11 Smith put up massive numbers last season in the Ivy League, averaging 22.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.1 rebounds, but it’s important to note that those statistics didn’t impact the most important thing — winning. Columbia was just 6-24 overall a year ago and 1-13 in conference play. With Brooks, sophomore Franz Wagner, and senior forward Isaiah Livers, Howard has a troika good enough to get his alma mater to the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Whether or not Michigan can advance when it gets there will depend on the type of point guard play it can get on a consistent basis.
4. Which Big Ten team is being undervalued nationally?
Rutgers. Ask yourself this question: Where would Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, or Michigan State be projected nationally if they returned seven of their top eight scorers from a team last season that won 20 games and was adding a top-50 freshman? Those are the credentials of the Scarlet Knights. Six of those seven returnees who ranked among this team’s top eight scorers last season will be juniors and seniors, headlined by a pair of All-Big Ten caliber players in Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. 6-11 freshman Cliff Omoruyi will provide Steve Pikiell with another capable body in the pivot next to veteran Myles Johnson, giving Rutgers the type of size needed to absorb the physical interior pounding that comes with playing 20 games in the Big Ten. A year ago, this program was ecstatic with the idea of making the NCAA Tournament. In March of 2021, Rutgers shouldn’t be ecstatic unless it sets itself up to advance in the NCAA Tournament.
5. Who is the sleeper?
Maryland. It’s weird to think of the Terps in that type of light, but the facts are the facts: Mark Turgeon’s squad lost two of the best players in the Big Ten from last season in Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith. That duo would have made Maryland a trendy Final Four pick had the NCAA Tournament not been cancelled last March due to COVID-19. In addition to those key departures, other teams in the conference have received more attention as well because there’s been several All-Big Ten caliber players who opted to return to school instead of beginning their professional careers. Nevertheless, Turgeon still returns four of his top six scorers from a year ago in Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Darryl Morsell, and Donta Scott, with Wiggins (10.4 points) in position to emerge as the Terps’ go-to guy as a junior. A big key for Maryland will be whether or not the NCAA grants an immediate eligibility waiver to Boston College transfer Jairus Hamilton, a 6-8 forward who could emerge as the Terps’ fifth starter. Hamilton averaged 9.5 points and 4.3 rebounds last season and would give Turgeon the type of skilled four-man that he craves to coach. If that happens and Chol Marial, Hakim Hart, and Alabama graduate transfer Galin Smith can provide quality insurance off the bench, this doesn’t necessarily have to be a “bridge year” in College Park. There’s still significant perimeter talent in this program.
Big Ten Preseason Power Rankings
1. Iowa
2. Wisconsin
3. Illinois
4. Michigan State
5. Rutgers
6. Ohio State
7. Indiana
8. Michigan
9. Purdue
10. Maryland
11. Penn State
12. Minnesota
13. Nebraska
14. Northwestern
Big Ten Preseason First-Team
Geo Baker, Rutgers
Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
Luka Garza, Iowa
Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year
Luka Garza, Iowa
15 Impact Freshmen
*In no particular order
Lorne Bowman, Wisconsin
Ben Carlson, Wisconsin
Mady Sissoko, Michigan State
A.J. Hoggard, Michigan State
Cliff Omoruyi, Rutgers
Khristian Lander, Indiana
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
Zeb Jackson, Michigan
Terrance Williams, Michigan
Adam Miller, Illinois
Andre Curbelo, Illinois
Ethan Morton, Purdue
Jaden Ivey, Purdue
Brandon Newman, Purdue (redshirt)
Jamal Mashburn Jr., Minnesota
10 Under-The-Radar Freshmen
*In no particular order
Patrick McCaffery, Iowa (redshirt)
Steven Crowl, Wisconsin
Jordan Geronimo, Indiana
Anthony Leal, Indiana
Trey Galloway, Indiana
Eugene Brown, Ohio State
Mason Gillis, Purdue (redshirt)
Martice Mitchell, Minnesota
Eduardo Andre, Nebraska
Ty Berry, Northwestern
15 Impact Transfers
*In no particular order
*This does include transfers who have filed for waivers with the NCAA
Joey Hauser, Michigan State (Marquette)
Justice Sueing, Ohio State (Cal)
Seth Towns, Ohio State (Harvard)
Abel Porter, Ohio State (Utah State)
Mike Smith, Michigan (Columbia)
Jacob Grandison, Illinois (Holy Cross)
Austin Hutcherson, Illinois (Wesleyan)
Galin Smith, Maryland (Alabama)
Liam Robbins, Minnesota (Drake)
Dalano Banton, Nebraska (Western Kentucky)
Kobe Webster, Nebraska (Western Illinois)
Teddy Allen, Nebraska (JUCO)
Lat Mayen, Nebraska (JUCO)
Shamiel Stevenson, Nebraska (Nevada)
Chase Audidge, Northwestern (William & Mary)
10 Breakout Players
*In no particular order
Rocket Watts, Michigan State
Jerome Hunter, Indiana
E.J. Liddell, Ohio State
Eric Ayala, Maryland
Donta Scott, Maryland
Seth Lundy, Penn State
Myles Dread, Penn State
Isaiah Inhen, Minnesota
Pete Nance, Northwestern
Robbie Beran, Northwestern
