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5 dark horse candidates for the 2026 Final Four

It’s never too early to start looking ahead!

Check below for our list of 5 dark horse candidates that could reach the 2026 Final Four.

In no particular order:

Arkansas: The Razorbacks return 45 percent of their scoring — which is most among SEC programs — from last season’s team that lost to Texas Tech in overtime in the Sweet 16. John Calipari also added two starting caliber big men from the transfer portal in Nick Pringle (South Carolina) and Malique Ewin (Florida State) as well as multiple five-star freshmen in Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. If two of Arkansas’ four returnees — Trevon Brazile, Karter Knox, DJ Wagner, and Billy Richmond — play at an All-SEC level then Calipari should have a strong chance to enter the 2026 NCAA Tournament with a significantly better seed than he did in 2025. The Razorbacks are as capable as any team that will play in the SEC in 2025-26. 

UCLA: The presence of New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent (20.4 points, 6.4 assists) at point guard should immediately elevate the ceiling for a roster that returns over 55 percent of their scoring from last season’s team that won 23 games and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Veterans Skyy Clark (8.5 points), Eric Dailey (11.4 points, 4.0 rebounds), and Tyler Bilodeau (13.5 points, 4.6 rebounds) will all enter 2025-26 as potential All-Big Ten players. If Mick Cronin can get mileage out of Michigan State transfer Xavier Booker in the pivot then the Bruins are going to be one tough out. The upside for UCLA is significantly higher than it was a year ago. 

Iowa State: Houston, BYU, and Texas Tech are all getting more attention than the Cyclones in terms of the Big 12 landscape, but that doesn’t mean that Iowa State isn’t going to be primed to win games in March Madness. Continuity and consistency have been the foundation of this program’s identity under T.J. Otzelberger and that won’t change this season. Four of the Cyclones’ top seven scorers — Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcillovic, Tamin Lipsey, and Nate Heise — return from a team that won 25 games and earned a three seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. That type of retention can’t be discounted in this climate. Virginia transfer Blake Buchanan is a bit of a wildcard in the pivot, but if he produces then the ceiling changes in Ames. Don’t forget about Iowa State in 2025-26. 

San Diego State: Two Final Fours in a four-year stretch for a Mountain West program? Crazier things have happened. The Aztecs bring back three all-conference caliber players in Magoon Gwath (8.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 blocks), Reese Waters (9.6 points), and Miles Byrd (12.3 points, 4.4 rebounds) along with several key role players from last year’s team that advanced to the NCAA Tournament. Three transfers — Latrell Davis (San Jose State), Sean Newman (Louisiana Tech), and Jeremiah Oden (Charlotte) — will all push for minutes as experienced veterans. San Diego State isn’t projected to be much more than a team that’s projected to start this season in the AP Top 25, but in a tournament setting, this program has the pedigree, toughness, and defensive mindset to advance. Keep a close eye on the 7-foot Gwath, who’s primed to become a national name in his second active season of college basketball. 

Tennessee: The Vols feel like they’re off the SEC radar a bit despite advancing to the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons. It may not stay that way for long. Rick Barnes’ teams always play elite defense and that should continue with veteran big man Felix Okpara (7.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks) protecting the front of the rim. Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie (14.7 points, 4.8 assists) should fit in seamlessly for Zakai Zeigler at point guard after leading the Terps to the Sweet 16 last March. And Nate Ament? The five-star freshman is ultra talented, but can he provide Tennessee with a consistent scoring threat on the wing? If he does, it may be the missing piece that Barnes needs to take this program to the Final Four for the first time in program history. 

Leftovers