The only thing that’s for sure right now in the world?
NOTHING’S for sure.
This applies to college basketball as well.
Due to the coronavirus, there’s no guarantee that both summer recruiting and offseason workouts will resume before the fall.
Another thing that makes it harder to plan for the 20-21 season?
The uncertainty surrounding a one-time transfer waiver which would provide immediate eligibility for players, a topic that the NCAA is set to table in the next few months.
Here are five things that would instantly happen in college basketball if and when that rule was ever passed:
MORE TAMPERING
While this is already going on at a high level in college basketball, it would instantly reach another level if transfers were allowed to play immediately without a penalty.
“Handshake lines would become home visits,” one high-major assistant said recently. “We’d be recruiting off each other’s teams every single day.”
That wouldn’t be restricted to certain levels of the sport.
Lesser productive players at high-major programs would be poached from mid-major programs and vice versa.
Several head coaches have expressed that tampering would have to be monitored more closely if a one-time transfer exception was put into place, but there’s no way that anyone could effectively monitor this considering how frequently this would occur.
“Another thing to keep in mind,” Michigan associate head coach Phil Martelli said last week. “Coaches would go back to hating each other. It’s just not good.”
MID-MAJORS WOULD ESSENTIALLY BECOME JUNIOR COLLEGES
We’ve seen several mid-major head coaches have their rosters depleted since graduate transfers were ruled eligible to play immediately several years ago.
This would reach an entirely different level if the NCAA opted to pass a one-time transfer exception.
In essence, mid-major programs with highly productive players would have no chance of keeping a nucleus intact.
“The margin for error at that level is so small,” current Indiana assistant and former Drexel head coach Bruiser Flint said in 2017 after losing Damion Lee as a graduate transfer in 2015. “One player makes such a big difference.”
A year ago, 14 different mid-major players who averaged in double-figures at mid-major programs during the 18-19 season opted to use the graduate transfer rule to commit to high-major teams. None averaged in double-figures last year.
While there are certainly exceptions to that rule, this is the more common outcome.
“There’s a supply and there’s a demand,” Flint added at the time. “If you’ve got a really good player who’s going into his last year and he has an extra year, you’ve got no shot of keeping him.”
It will be nearly impossible for mid-major basketball to exist the way it has for decades if the NCAA passes a rule where transfers can play immediately without a penalty.
The new junior college?
It could very well be headed that way if this rule passes.
MORE ROSTER TURNOVER
The two things that most college coaches are concerned with is recruiting and scheduling.
Roster management would quickly be on the top of that list if players could go and come as they please one time in their college careers.
“We’re going to see a lot of turnover,” Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said in February when asked his feelings regarding the potential new rule. “It’ll change the complexion of the sport.”
The most successful teams in college basketball have always been those who have had great continuity over the course of time. This would be extremely hard to accomplish if a one-time transfer waiver was put into effect.
Blue blood programs will be able to recalibrate their rosters easier than most if this new rule goes into place, but they wouldn’t be completely immune to the rule either.
“Duke and Kentucky are going to be able to pick and choose if this rule passes,” one high-major assistant said this week prior to the Wildcats’ addition of former Creighton guard Davion Mintz as a graduate transfer. “But the programs that lose players to Duke and Kentucky are going to try and recruit the players that are on Duke and Kentucky’s bench or the guys who are starting are not being featured.”
PROGRAM BUILDING WOULD BECOME OBSOLETE
During the last five years, it’s felt like college basketball has shifted from trying to build stability within a program to attempting to try and build the best team that you can build on an annual basis.
That would only intensify if the NCAA passes a one-time waiver exception for transfers to become immediately eligible.
The stability that’s been the backbone of programs like Villanova and Notre Dame will be fully tested if and when this rule ever goes through.
In the last decade, Duke has shifted from winning with older and more experienced guys to assembling the best talent it can from what’s available in that year’s freshman class.
If the Blue Devils — the flagship program in the sport — can do that before this rule goes into effect then everyone else will likely have to follow suit at some point.
THE POTENTIAL ELIMINATION OF WAIVERS
This is a good thing.
In many ways, the NCAA has backed itself into a corner by opening the door for hardship waivers during the past few years. A one-time transfer exception for players could immediately eliminate that issue.
Why have some players gotten waivers over the past few years while some haven’t?
It’s an in-exact science that really has no rhyme or reason.
“I don’t like it,” Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo said of the waiver process before last season, even though the Spartans filed a waiver for Marquette transfer Joey Hauser, which was denied. “If a player wants to transfer, he still has the right to transfer and it’s likely going to take more time academically if he transfers anyway. We’ve got a lot of people making up stories. It’s not in the best interest of college basketball.”
Suggestion: No waivers for immediate eligibility UNLESS you’re either a graduate transfer or a player in a program where the head coach leaves for another job or gets fired.
Wouldn’t that stabilize the game completely?
This and That:
– With the addition of Harvard grad transfer Bryce Aiken, Seton Hall has a legitimate chance to be an NCAA Tournament caliber team for the sixth consecutive season. The 6-foot Aiken averaged 16.7 points last season, but only played in seven games due to injury.
– No power conference program had a tougher stretch last week than Mississippi State. The Bulldogs potentially lost two players — Nick Weatherspoon and Robert Woodard — who would have been All-SEC players next season. Weatherspoon will not return to school and while Woodard could, he is currently projected as a potential first-round pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. Mississippi State was 20-11 last season.
– Purdue grad transfer Matt Haarms has cut his list to Arizona, Arkansas, Boston College, BYU, Gonzaga, Memphis, Kentucky, Minnesota, Texas Tech, and UNC Greensboro. The 7-3 big man averaged 8.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks last season. Haarms is immediately eligible to play in 20-21.
– Wisconsin, Oregon, Butler, Houston, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s, and Chaminade will headline the 2021 Maui Invitational, according to multiple sources.
– One big thing to remember during the NBA Draft process over the next few months? If a player signs with an agent who is not certified by the NCAA, that player then loses his eligibility and the right to return to college next season.
