It’s not an oversight. It’s an insult.
Florida State has averaged 26 wins per season over the last four years and is a combined 50-24 in ACC regular season games during that span. Prior to this season, the Seminoles went to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years. That was before winning an outright conference regular season title in 19-20.
Yet for some reason, they’re not universally viewed as a perennial threat for the top of the ACC standings.
Maybe it’s because Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have all won at least one national title since 2015. Maybe it’s because Louisville has recruited so well since Chris Mack took over the Cardinals’ program in 2018.
Either way, it’s time for that narrative to be retired.
Florida State lost two key players to the NBA Draft this past week in Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams, but there’s more than enough remaining for Leonard Hamilton’s team to be a major threat again next season.
Seven different players will return who averaged 9.1 minutes or more in 19-20 and Hamilton will add a gem in 6-7 freshman Scottie Barnes. A 5 star prospect, the versatile Barnes is capable of playing four different positions and can score, facilitate, and rebound.
6-4 wing Sardaar Calhoun was rated as one of the top JUCO prospects in the country and should also have an immediate impact. Hamilton could also add another perimeter piece during the spring recruiting circuit.
Florida State will miss Trent Forrest’s leadership and playmaking ability, but the mark of a true program is one that has players ready to step in and immediately assume roles that were left behind.
Seven of Florida State’s returning rotational players next season will be juniors and seniors.
Cliff Omoruyi cements Rutgers as a preseason Top 25 team
That is far from a misprint.
The Scarlet Knights were set to return seven of their top eight scorers from this past season’s team that won 20 games prior to the start of the Big Ten Tournament. Now they’ve added a top-50 prospect on top of that experience.
The 6-10 Omoruyi — who committed to Rutgers on Sunday — should instantly provide Steve Pikiell with another physical presence in the paint next to Myles Johnson (7.8 points, 7.9 rebounds in 19-20). That was something that the Scarlet Knights lacked at times this past season.
Another reason why Omoruyi’s commitment is so significant?
One of the hardest parts about the Rutgers job over the last three decades has been getting local talent to stay home because there’s been no winning tradition to associate with the Scarlet Knights’ program. This commitment — the highest profile one yet under Pikiell — is evidence that there is a shift occurring in that narrative.
Pikiell got Rutgers to the cusp of the NCAA Tournament by evaluating and developing lesser recruited players who had something to prove. Omoruyi’s commitment is evidence that in addition to unearthing hidden gems and getting them better over time, Piscataway can still be a home for top flight talent.
It’s important to temper expectations when it comes to graduate transfers
The facts are the facts.
In the last five years, 100 different players started in the Final Four while only four were graduate transfers.
During that same period, 200 different players started in the Elite Eight and only seven were graduate transfers.
Lastly, in the past five years, 400 different players started in the Sweet 16 and just 12 were graduate transfers.
That’s only between three and four percent of the starters of the last few rounds of the last five NCAA Tournaments.
Here’s more: 14 different mid-major players transferred up to power conferences as graduate transfers a year ago after averaging in double-figures at their respective schools. None of those players averaged in double-figures last season.
“Here’s the thing about graduate transfers,” one power conference assistant coach said over the weekend. “For the most part, they plug holes. They help you go from one of the top seeds in the NIT to one of the teams that’s fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid during the first few weeks of March.”
There are exceptions to the rule.
Seven years ago, DeAndre Kane left Marshall after an uninspiring first few years of his college career and committed to Iowa State as a graduate transfer. He then proceeded to take the Big 12 by storm, leading the Cyclones to a conference tournament title and all the way to the Sweet 16 while being named an honorable mention AP All-American.
Louisville had a pair of graduate transfers during the 2015-16 season in Damion Lee (Drexel) and Trey Lewis (Cleveland State) who both averaged in double-figures. The Cardinals were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament that season, but would have been a trendy pick for the second weekend if they were indeed in the bracket.
More recently, Ryan Woolridge was a key cog in Gonzaga’s attack this past season, regularly guarding the opponent’s top offensive perimeter player. Woolridge was a starter for the Bulldogs after committing as a graduate transfer from North Texas. He averaged 10.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 19-20.
“He was our MVP early in the season because of the way that he was defending,” Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said in December.
The players listed above are certainly not the norm and the percentages reflect exactly that, but coaches still aspire to get older players with experience. Coaches also want to get players who are immediately available to help right away.
This is why we’ve seen more and more graduate transfers go from being just names in the periphery during the actual season to a trending topic on social media in April and May.
Just remember, the odds aren’t likely that they’re going to have a major impact on what matters most in college basketball — winning.
This and That:
– The Atlantic 10 is considering shifting to a 20-game conference schedule, according to Atlantic 10 Commissioner Bernadette McGlade. “With the inventory of non-conference games shrinking, we have to consider 20 games,” McGlade said on Saturday. The Big East and Pac-12 will join both the ACC and Big Ten next season as leagues that will play 20 conference games. The Atlantic 10 currently plays 18.
– Arizona freshman Zeke Nnaji will declare for the 2020 NBA Draft, according to a source close to the situation. The 6-11, 240 pound big man averaged 16.1 points and 8.6 rebounds last season as a freshman. Nnaji is expected to be a late first-round pick.
– Kansas and USC will begin a home-and-home series on December 19th at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. There will be a return game at the Galen Center in Los Angeles during the 21-22 season.
– One interesting tidbit from this past week? Many college coaches are using FaceTime and ZOOM to give virtual tours to potential prospects who physically can’t get to campuses due to coronavirus. We’re definitely in uncharted territory when it comes to recruiting in college basketball.
– No mid-major head coach had a tougher weekend than Quinnipiac’s Baker Dunleavy. The Bobcats’ top two players from last season — Kevin Marfo (10.2 points, 13.3 rebounds in 19-20) and Rich Kelly (16.7 points in 19-20) — committed to Texas A&M and Boston College respectively on Saturday and Sunday as graduate transfers. Quinnipiac was 15-15 last year and would have been projected as one of the top teams in the MAAC had its roster remained intact. There has never been a tougher time to be a mid-major head coach.
