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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: January 23rd

This is ONLY January.

Between now and Selection Sunday, each Friday during the regular season I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

The team who’s currently in first place in their respective league will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier”.

The Current Field

America East (1)
UMBC (AQ)
American Conference (1)
Florida Atlantic (AQ)
ASUN (1)
Queens (AQ)
Atlantic 10 (1)
Saint Louis (AQ)
ACC (9)
Duke (AQ), Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, SMU, Virginia, Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7)
Arizona (AQ), BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, UCF
Big East (4)
UConn (AQ), St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall
Big Sky (1)
Portland State (AQ)
Big South (1)
Winthrop (AQ)
Big Ten (10)
Nebraska (AQ), Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, USC, Wisconsin, UCLA
Big West (1)
Hawaii (AQ)
CAA (1)
UNC Wilmington (AQ)
Conference-USA (1)
Liberty (AQ)
Horizon League (1)
Wright State (AQ)
Ivy League (1)
Yale (AQ)
MAAC (1)
St. Peter’s (AQ)
MAC (1)
Miami (OH) (AQ)
MEAC (1)
Maryland Eastern Shore (AQ)
Missouri Valley (1)
Murray State (AQ)
Mountain West (2)
San Diego State (AQ), Utah State
NEC (1)
LIU (AQ)
OVC (1)
UT Martin (AQ)
Patriot League (1)
Navy (AQ)
SEC (10)
Florida (AQ), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri
Southern (1)
East Tennessee State (AQ)
Southland (1)
Stephen F. Austin (AQ)
SWAC (1)
Bethune Cookman (AQ)
Summit (1)
North Dakota State (AQ)
Sun Belt (1)
Troy (AQ)
WCC (2)
Gonzaga (AQ), Saint Mary’s
WAC (1)
Utah Valley (AQ)

First Four Out

Stanford, Texas, Oklahoma State, Indiana

Top 16 Seeds

1: Arizona (No. 1 overall seed), UConn, Duke, Nebraska
2: Michigan, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga
3: Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa State, BYU
4: Virginia, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas Tech

Five Things To Know

  • Nebraska has never been better than a three seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Huskers are currently projected to be a one seed in the bracket projection above. Anarchy? Nope. Just college basketball.
  • Baylor is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.
  • A win by Oklahoma State at home on Saturday against Iowa State could catapult the Cowboys into next week’s bracket.
  • The Big 12 and Big Ten combined for 10 of the top 16 seeds in the bracket projection above.
  • The biggest thing I keep coming back to when I do this bracket projection each and every week? NO ONE who follows college basketball closely thinks that expanding the NCAA Tournament is a good idea.

Leftovers