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BRACKET BREAKDOWN: February 28th

This is ONLY February.

Between now and Selection Sunday, each Friday I’ll give a “BRACKET BREAKDOWN” with my 68 projected teams for the 2025 NCAA Tournament along with my Top 16 seeds as well as emerging trends.

The team who is currently in first place in their respective conference will be listed as that league’s “automatic qualifier”.

The Current Field

Atlantic Sun (1)
Lipscomb (AQ)
America East (1)
Bryant (AQ)
American Athletic Conference (1)
Memphis (AQ)
Atlantic 10 (1)
VCU (AQ)
ACC (3)
Duke (AQ), Clemson, Louisville
Big 12 (8)
Houston (AQ), Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech, BYU
Big East (4)
St. John’s (AQ), Marquette, UConn, Creighton
Big Sky (1)
Montana (AQ)
Big South (1)
High Point (AQ)
Big Ten (11)
Michigan State (AQ), UCLA, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Oregon, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
Big West (1)
UC San Diego (AQ)
CAA (1)
Towson (AQ)
Conference-USA (1)
Liberty (AQ)
Horizon League (1)
Robert Morris (AQ)
Ivy League (1)
Yale (AQ)
MAAC (1)
Marist (AQ)
MAC (1)
Robert Morris (AQ)
MEAC (1)
Norfolk State (AQ)
Missouri Valley (1)
Drake (AQ)
Mountain West (3)
New Mexico (AQ), Utah State, San Diego State
NEC (1)
Central Connecticut (AQ)
OVC (1)
SEMO (AQ)
Patriot League (1)
American (AQ)
SEC (13)
Auburn (AQ), Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, Arkansas
Southern (1)
Chattanooga (AQ)
Southland (1)
McNeese (AQ)
SWAC (1)
Southern (AQ)
Summit (1)
Omaha (AQ)
Sun Belt (1)
James Madison (AQ)
WCC (2)
Saint Mary’s (AQ), Gonzaga
WAC (1)
Utah Valley (AQ)

First Four Out

Xavier, Texas, Boise State, North Carolina

Top 16 Seeds

1: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Houston
2: Tennessee, Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin
3: Texas A&M, Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas Tech
4: Michigan, St. John’s, Arizona, Purdue

Five Things To Know

  • Tennessee can greatly enhance its chances of being a number one seed if it beats Alabama on Saturday in Knoxville. The Vols are currently projected as a two seed in the projected bracket above and have never been a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Michigan State hasn’t been higher than a seven seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2019. That will change on Selection Sunday.
  • A team from the First Four has advanced to the Round of 32 in each of the past four NCAA Tournaments.
  • The Mountain West has had at least four teams qualify for each of the past three NCAA Tournaments, including a record six in 2024. History will repeat itself if Boise State — who’s listed among the “First Four Out” in the bracket projected above — earns an at-large bid or another Mountain West team steals a bid during the Mountain West Tournament in March.
  • Only 12 out of 32 teams that won regular season titles last season wound up earning an automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament by then winning their respective conference tournaments.

Leftovers